“Significant demographic shifts are underway in much of the world. Over half of the world’s economies, accounting for two-thirds of the global population, now have fertility rates below the replacement fertility level of 2.1 children per woman. Without action, these populations will age and decline over time.

“Countries such as Italy, Japan, and Germany are already experiencing the effects of this demographic transition. Lower birth rates result in a smaller working-age population, which in turn affects economic productivity and increases the burden on social support systems. The ratio of retirees to workers is rising, leading to higher costs for pensions and health care, and putting pressure on public finances.” – From an article by the IMF’s Andrew Stanley, September 2024.

Greece is no exception to this global trend. According to a study by the Hellenic Statistical Authority, ELSTAT, Greece’s population is declining, with 56,646 more deaths than births registered in 2023 . In 2022, there were 64,706 more deaths than births, The study also revealed a reduction in marriages and an increase in divorces, as well as a big increase in cohabitation agreements.

In Greece in 2023:
– There were 71,455 births (36,622 boys and 34,833 girls), a 6.1% reduction on 2022 when there were 76,095 births (39,305 boys and 36,790 girls).
– Deaths totalled 128,101 (64,898 men and 63,203 women) a reduction of 9% compared with 2022, when there were 140,801 deaths (70,802 men and 69,999 women).
– There were 248 deaths of babies under 1 year old, an increase in the infant mortality rate (deaths of babies under 1 year old per 1,000 live births) from 3.1 in 2022 to 3.5 in 2023.
– There were 40,351 marriages (21,402 religious and 18,949 civil), a reduction of 6.9% from 2022 when there were 43,355 marriages (21,381 religious and 21,974 civil).
– Cohabitation agreements increased by 17.4%, from 12,840 in 2022 to 15,069 in 2023. Included in the 2023 figure were 262 cohabitation agreements between men and 121 between women.
– There were 15,114 divorces in 2023, an increase of 4.4% on 2022 (14,477 divorces).

The figures for Crete
A similar pattern is revealed in Crete, where in 2023 there were a total of 5,500 births against 6,673 deaths. In the Nomos of Heraklion there were 2,711 births and 3,112 deaths, in Lasithi 585 births and 987 deaths, in Rethymnon 793 births and 866 deaths, and in Chania 1,411 births and 1,708 deaths.

The population pyramid

Of great concern is the shift in demographic profiles, with a rise in the older sections of society and a decline in the numbers of citizens of productive age. The Populationpyramid website provides diagrammatic expressions of worldwide demographic data. Two diagrams of Greece’s demographic profile from 2023 and 2070 show clearly the shift towards an ageing and less productive population. The most salient facts emerging from the comparison are:
– by 2070, the numbers of women of 90 and over will be greater than any other (5-year) segment of the population;
– children aged from 0 to 4 will be the smallest segment in both sexes;
– the greatest shrinkage is seen in the productive ages, especially from 40 to 60 years;
– there is a major reduction in the childbearing female population aged 30 to 45;
– the population pyramid, which is already tilted towards the middle-aged segments in 2023 because of ongoing low fertility, is inverted by the year 2070.

Government measures against demographic decline
At a cabinet meeting this week, the minister for Social Cohesion and Family Affairs Sofia Zacharaki introduced a series of proposed measures to combat the country’s demographic decline. The National Demographic Action Plan includes five axes, 20 targets and more than 100 actions. With a time-line up to 2035, the plan aims not only to address the decline in births but to comprehensively manage the impacts of the changes which have come about in the age structure of the population. The plan gives priority to:
– creating an environment which is favourable to acquiring a family;
– boosting employment;
– managing citizens’ longevity and wellbeing;
– promoting local development;
– providing information to citizens, raising awareness and activating society.

The above axes result in more than 100 actions involving a total expenditure of €20 billion. “We want to fashion a family- and child-friendly environment, which will respect the citizens’ wishes, provide them with choices and support their needs,” Ms Zacharaki said. “The ultimate aim is to improve living standards through the planning, application, coordination and assessment of activities which affect the whole of the populace throughout the life cycle. The plan of 5 axes, 20 targets and more than 100 actions affects all citizens and requires the maximum effort from all administrative bodies. It is a national command.”
(Haniotika Nea/APE-MPE, 02-03/10/24)