With two weeks having now elapsed since two major earthquakes struck Southern Türkiye and Syria, the efforts of the rescuers have been largely replaced by teams of bulldozers clearing the wreckage of the many buildings destroyed by the tremors. On Saturday three survivors were rescued having spent nearly 13 days trapped in the ruins of their building, the latest in a series of miraculous rescues which have defied the normal expectations of survival under such conditions. (See https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/feb/17/three-rescued-from-rubble-11-days-after-earthquake-in-turkey)

Attention, both in Türkiye and elsewhere, is now focussing on identifying those responsible for the massive loss of life, which has so far reached over 45,000 for both countries. Visiting the affected areas in Türkiye in the week following the disaster, President Erdogan was disinclined to admit to his government’s responsibility – with national elections scheduled for May (though it seems possible that these will be postponed). Mistakes had been made, he admitted, but the government now had things under control. In any case it was impossible to prepare for such strong earthquakes – it was a matter of fate, he said.

However, many comments from survivors, and articles in the international media, place the blame squarely on the government’s failure to enforce building codes as the major contributing factor. The effects of any disaster are due to a multiplicity of causes, as earthquake expert Efthymios Lekkas made clear in a quote we published in a previous post. But the facts are clear: many buildings in Türkiye were built either before the introduction of building codes, or in ignorance or defiance of them once they had been established.

It is ironic that President Erdogan’s AKP party was first elected following a previous major earthquake in 1999. The AKP promised to root out corruption and establish more stringent antiseismic codes for the building industry. Also a series of “earthquake taxes” were instituted to provide funds for rehabilitating cities affected by natural disasters. However, the building codes were often ignored and some of the tax money at least was to diverted to other resources. Moreover the government has regularly issued an amnesty for illegal buildings, ensuring that those built without adhering to the proper codes remain standing. Even some buildings which were originally sound when erected have been made vulnerable by alterations which, for instance, take out support pillars to make more room for commercial space. An article by Borzou Daragahi in The Independent reviews the failings of the construction industry in Türkiye and the fatal consequences they may have for the ordinary citizen: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/turkey-earthquake-erdogan-building-danger-b2283692.html

Of particular concern is the city of Istanbul, which has many old buildings erected before the existence of anti-seismic regulations, and many others built without following them. With a population of over 15 million, Istanbul also lies close to a major fault line, and a major earthquake could produce a disaster which would dwarf that seen in Southern Türkiye and Syria.

(On Tuesday 21st February it was reported that a further earthquake of magnitude 6.3 had struck the affected area on the Turkish-Syrian border, followed by another 5.8 magnitude tremor. Six deaths and 294 injuries have been reported to date).

Will Greece suffer the same fate as Türkiye?

With this background, many voices in Greece are asking if the country could meet a similar fate. The country is subject to minor earthquakes almost daily. The biggest seismic event in Greece in recent decades was the 6.0 magnitude earthquake which occurred on 7th September 1999 near Mt Parnitha. Its proximity to Athens caused widespread structural damage, mainly in the nearby suburbs. More than 100 buildings collapsed, trapping scores of victims under rubble, while dozens more were severely damaged. The damage was estimated at $3.0–$4.2 billion, 143 people were killed, and up to 1,600 were treated for injuries. It was Greece’s deadliest natural disaster in almost half a century. (Wikipedia)

There have been regular earthquakes in Crete, including the recent 6.0 magnitude event in Archalohori in 2021, which occurred at a depth of only 6 km and which killed one person, injured 36 and damaged over 5,000 buildings. However, such events are rare, with Cretan earthquakes usually taking place under the sea.

Experts are divided on the possibility of an event on the scale of that in Türkiye happening in Greece. Speaking on Mega TV shortly after the Turkish tremors, Professor of Natural Catastrophes Konstantinos Synolakis predicted the possibility of an earthquake of magnitude 8.5 in Greece at some point, given the country’s historical record. Accused of doom-mongering at a time when people were still in a state of shock following the Turkish earthquakes, the Professor backpedalled somewhat in remarks to ERT. Greece lies on what is known as the Hellenic Arc, a fault which runs from south of Rhodes westwards in a crescent, passing south of Crete and west of the Peloponnisos and ending up in the Adriatic, and it is this which is most likely to produce violent earthquakes, he said. However, since it lies under the sea, their effects will be greatly diminished.

One of a group of Greek scientists who visited Türkiye in the aftermath of the recent tremors, Professor Synolakis said that there were a number of factors distinguishing the situation in Greece from that in Türkiye. Greece has world-class antiseismic building regulations, he said, and while it also builds in concrete, the materials are of better quality than those customarily used in Türkiye. Moreover Greece does not have a tradition of high-rise buildings, so one does not see the 10- or 13-story apartment blocks which are common in Türkiye and are among those which have collapsed. He did emphasise, however, that Greece’s many old buildings need to be checked for the resistance to a strong earthquake. It is significant that the 5,000 buildings destroyed in the earthquake at Archalohori were mostly old ones.

Antiseismic inspection of all public buildings to become obligatory

Following a working meeting at the prime ministerial mansion last week on the subject of earthquake protection in public buildings, Efthymios Lekkas, Professor of Geology and head of the Organisation for Antiseismic Planning and Protection has told ERT that the precautionary inspections hitherto carried out piecemeal are now to become obligatory.

As the professor explained: “First and second-degree inspections began in the decade following the year 2000, but only on a voluntary basis, with the result that of the 80,000 buildings which we have in the wider public sector in Greece, only [a limited number] have been registered. …”

“With this initiative,” the professor told ERT, “first- and second-degree inspections are to become obligatory on all public buildings, starting with schools and hospitals which are critical services, housing children and sick people, and which would have a central role in managing any disaster.”

Buildings and anti-seismic regulations

According to Professor Lekkas: “Thirty per cent of the nation’s buildings have been built with the new, up-to-date antiseismic regulations. Those buildings are not in any danger. There are an additional 30 per cent which were built between 1969 and 1984. These were constructed in accordance with the antiseismic regulations of 1959 and do not have a problem, unless they have been altered or have not been properly maintained. From 1959 and before, we have buildings which were not certified but for which there were just a few guidelines issued by the government up to 1959. These buildings should be inspected as a matter of priority. Not because they are dangerous buildings, but we have to see what their performance level is, i.e. their level of protection against earthquakes, so that they can be improved in this aspect if necessary.”

Regarding the buildings which have not been inspected, Professor Lekkas said: “We should make it clear that of the 55,000 buildings which have yet to be inspected, not all are in use. Some 25-30,000 buildings are being used, the rest are buildings where people do not gather. They are warehouses or buildings of no particular distinction.”

He stressed that not only do the 30,000 remaining buildings need to be checked for earthquake resistance, but also the 25,000 which have already been inspected, because the fact that a building has been checked does not mean that it will remain safe over a period of time. Buildings need to be rechecked every 5 or 10 years, to ensure that they have adequate earthquake resistance, he said.